ANZCO Foods Market Update - April 2025

While it’s apparently President Trump’s favourite word in the English language, there’s no doubt that ‘tariff’ has become one of the most widely used words across multiple languages during the past three weeks.

I won’t spend too much time on US trade policy in this report – plenty has already been written and said about possible market impacts across a range of sources. From our perspective, nothing has changed. The US market for beef – and lamb, for that matter – is robust, and a 10% cost increase for our beef importers and customers pales in comparison to the prevailing price gap with US domestic lean beef, which has been closer to 30%, hence the incentive to purchase New Zealand manufacturing beef remains. Premium beef sales also continue without interruption as domestic supply runs dry and prices continue to increase, which a positive sign for our business for the remainder of 2025.

The lingering concern beyond the current tariffs is their long-term impact on the US and global economies. That said, we will keep doing what we do well and let the chips fall as they may. Fundamentally, global supply of beef and lamb is falling behind global consumption, so despite rising recession risks in some parts of the world, I am confident demand for our product will remain strong.

The current geopolitical environment has had an immediate impact on China. Beef inquiries have increased, as have prices – although still behind our better options across other parts of the globe, so sales remain subdued. Grain-fed beef prices in particular have spiked, as fears grow around the impact of the bilateral ‘trade war’ on supply of American premium product, which has grown in volume and reputation during recent years. It is unclear how sustainable such price increases are however, and most deals are being done with product already in-market, simply moving between distribution channels rather than on to end-users. In reality, US beef exports to China had already been slowing due to strong domestic demand and tight supply, so the new, excessively high tariffs on US product entering China are unlikely to have a massive impact on actual trade flows.

I’m writing this on a flight back to New Zealand after 10 days in the US and Europe. Both markets are in good shape. Demand for beef and lamb is steady, our Easter shipments went to plan, and our retail partners are happy with our performance. There’s growing nervousness among lamb customers in that part of the world around general uncertainty in the New Zealand industry and future supply position. As a result, it’s been relatively easy to lock in volumes and good prices looking ahead to the second half of the year. Customers in the UK and on the Continent are clearly looking to secure supply and diversify their supplier mix – more so than in the past – which is helping keep inquiries for ANZCO product high. Domestically, tight and expensive supply of beef and lamb continues to add fuel to the fire.

It’s a busy month of travel, with a week in Japan coming up next. I’ll report back in more detail next month on what’s happening in that important and valuable market but certainly during the past month, we’ve seen some positive signs around demand, helped in part by supply chain challenges out of Australia that have caused ongoing delays for chilled lamb and beef. I’m optimistic that direct conversations with customers will confirm the positive market sentiment and point to a sustainable recovery in demand and pricing as we head into the second half of 2025.

Enjoy your Easter weekend.