ANZCO Foods Market Update - May 2025

There’s been little change across global markets during the past month.

In the US, we’ve largely been in a state of flux, with our US manufacturing beef customers keen to debate who should cover the impact of the 10% tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration in early April. One of the few upsides of a short-term livestock picture in New Zealand right now is that we’re under less inventory pressure than we’d typically be facing at this time of year, which has made it easier for us to hold the line. We’ve also been very active in exploring other market options and have been largely successful in leveraging those alternatives, keeping values broadly in line with what we were seeing from the US before the tariff decision.

Time is a great healer, and inevitably we’ll return to the US market. No doubt, our customers and we will find a new equilibrium in how we operate under this new world order. Our US premium beef buyers have been far more accommodating when it comes to tariffs, which gives us confidence that we’re entitled to maintain a strong position in the short term.

On lamb into the US, we’ve been fortunate to leverage our in-market operation – The Lamb Company – to manage the tariff risk on our behalf. They’re now in the process of moving that cost through the value chain, and it’ll be interesting to see how US retailers and foodservice operators react as those price increases are passed along.

The Chinese market seems to have settled after a few weeks of uncertainty tied to the US trade action and its potential impact on imported volumes for the remainder of 2025. Overall, the market remains subdued due to weak consumer confidence. The major SIAL food show in Shanghai is being held this week, which should provide a valuable opportunity for conversations with a wide range of importers and end-users. That’ll help us get a clearer sense of where the market may trend during the next few months.

There’s been no change in the UK and Europe. Demand for chilled beef and lamb has remained generally steady, and we’ve continued to push prices higher to help offset at least some of the rising livestock costs here in New Zealand. There is a bit of nervousness around lamb, with questions about whether we’re now hitting pricing levels that could see lamb drop off menus and disappear from retail shelves. However, unlike in the past, tight beef supply in the UK and Europe, leading to record domestic prices, means the price gap between the two protein categories isn’t as wide as it might otherwise have been. Hopefully, that encourages end-users to keep lamb in the mix despite the high price tags.

I mentioned in last month’s report that I was heading to Japan. ANZCO Foods exports more than 90% of New Zealand’s total chilled lamb volume to Japan, so it’s a crucial market for us. My visit gave me a great opportunity to engage directly with some of our major chilled lamb retailers. The market has generally been tough for the past 12 months – similar to China, largely due to poor consumer confidence. But it was really encouraging to see the work our retail partners are doing to promote our product and educate consumers about the quality of New Zealand lamb.

Likewise, our grain-finished Ocean Beef brand continues to enjoy strong support in Japan. The Japanese beef market has been tough, driven largely by an oversupply of domestic beef including traditional dairy beef, dairy/Wagyu crosses, and 100% pure Wagyu. The price gap between those domestic products and imported beef has narrowed considerably, with lower domestic prices clashing against higher imported prices, due to a strong global market and a weak yen. Still, despite these challenges, every meeting I had with our major retail partners was full of passion about the quality of Ocean Beef and the opportunity to grow our business together in the future.

Overall, it was a very positive market visit and it gave me great confidence that we’ll recover lost ground and continue to grow volume and value for our lamb and beef in this key market for ANZCO Foods.

Finally, a quick update on our Angel Bay burger patty and meatball business in New Zealand. During the first four months of the year, retail sales have continued to exceed expectations, with year-on-year growth approaching double digits. Angel Bay now has around 60% market share of the frozen burger category in New Zealand retail. We’re incredibly proud of what the brand has achieved and of the feedback we receive weekly from New Zealand consumers about its quality, convenience, and value for money. It’s a great example of how we’re adding value within our business, and I hope you’ve got a pack or two in your freezer. If not, keep an eye out next time you’re at the supermarket.